Craig McCaskill gives multiple example of bubbles and how they ultimately burst. But what if AI isn’t a bubble? What if this is the real deal?
The AI revolution is real, transformative, and probably unstoppable. Whether it unfolds through sustainable growth or boom-bust cycles depends largely on the choices we make in the next few years. The early signs (including voices like Altman’s warning about overexcitement) suggest we might actually be learning from history.
The AI bubble’s human impact could be fundamentally different. Previous bubbles destroyed jobs when they burst. AI might destroy jobs while it’s still inflating. If AI actually delivers on its automation promises, we could see the first bubble that eliminates more employment during its rise than its fall.
This creates an unprecedented social risk: a technology bubble that succeeds in its goals might cause more disruption than one that fails. The Railway Mania gave Britain train networks and industrial jobs. The dot-com bubble gave us e-commerce and digital careers. The AI bubble might give us unprecedented productivity and fewer jobs. That’s a social equation we haven’t solved.