People are very good at forecasting the future, except for the surprises, which tend to be all that matter.
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The biggest risk is always what no one sees coming. If you don’t see something coming you’re not prepared for it. And when you’re not prepared for it its damage is amplified when it hits you.
Look at the big news stories that move the needle – Covid, 9/11, Pearl Harbor, the Great Depression. Their common trait isn’t necessarily that they were big; it’s that they were surprises, on virtually no one’s radar until they arrived.
It’s like that every year. It’ll be like that every year.
Never Saw It Coming