My journey with Axis Bluechip Fund completed five years and it was the year where I decided to call it a pause on the investment. Its continued underperformance against its benchmark S&P BSE 100 was the primary reason to take a pause. And to some extent the Axis front running case was also responsible for my decision.
Is this a regular or a direct plan? It’s both. I started with a regular plan with help of MFD and then from Sep-2022 I started investing in the direct plan as well. The charts below are for both of them combined. Regular plan holds 76% of my investment while the direct plan holds the remaining 24%.
Did I beat the benchmark S&P BSE 100? No. Since last three years, my investment has underperformed the S&P BSE 100.
Am I going to continue investing in it? No, I am pausing further investments.
But impacts of climate change are different — they are non-linear. In a rain event, for example, the first few inches of rain typically produce no damage because existing infrastructure (e.g., storm drains) were designed to handle that much rain.
As rainfall continues to intensify, however, it eventually exceeds the capacity of the storm runoff infrastructure and the neighborhood floods. You go from zero damage if the water stops half an inch below the front door of your house to tens of thousands of dollars of damage if the water rises one additional inch and flows into your house.
Thus, the correct mental model is not one of impacts slowly getting worse over decades. Rather, the correct way to understand climate change is that things are fine until they’re not, at which point they’re really terrible. And the system can go from “fine” to “terrible” in the blink of an eye.
In 2024, my investment in Polycab took me on a roller coaster ride. Early in the year, allegations of ₹200 crore tax evasion were leveled against the company. As a result, the stock plummeted from ₹5,400 to ₹3,800. I felt like my golden goose was dying. My profit dropped from 500% to 325%, which, while still impressive, felt disappointing compared to the initial gains. Unsure whether the allegations were true, I grappled with the decision: should I sell Polycab and secure a gain of over 300%? Ultimately, I chose to do… nothing. I sat there, eyes closed, waiting. Remarkably, four months later, Polycab has fully recovered its lost gains. But the mystery remains: were the allegations true or false? And what happens if they are true?
Investment through the years
Returns
Fiscal year
Dividend yield at cost
2019-20
1.86%
2020-21
0.00%
2021-22
1.45%
2022-23
1.27%
2023-24
2.13%
2024-25
0.00% *
* Data as of 4-May-2024
The dividend yield at cost mentioned in the Returns graph above, is yield at the date at which I received the dividends. Another way to look at dividend yield is to calculate it for the fiscal year. To calculate the dividend yield at cost in the above table I use the below formula. (Total amount of dividends received in a fiscal year ÷ Total amount invested at the end of fiscal year) × 100
Seven years ago when I started investing in Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd, it was called Motherson Sumi Systems Limited. Over last seven years the company split its wiring business into another entity called Motherson Sumi Wiring India Limited and renamed itself to Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd.
When Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd got demerged, the historical share price of Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd got adjusted to remove Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd’s valuation (not sure if I am using the right terminology here, I am no financial expert). With that I was not able to reliably calculate the historical movement of my investment. But this time, I used the technique described here with the difference being that I used Google Sheets rather than Numbers on Mac.
Before we go see the journey, here is gist of the key events.
Date
Event
Jul 2017 from Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd
Bonus 1:2
Oct 2018 from Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd
Bonus 1:2
Feb 2022
Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd demerges with 1:1 ratio i.e. one equity share of Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd for every one equity share of Motherson Sumi Systems Limited
Sep 2022 from Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd
Bonus 2:5
Sep 2022
Motherson Sumi Systems Limited renames itself to Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd
Oct 2022 from Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd
Bonus 1:2
Investment through the years
I have not invested any amount since I last wrote, so the my investment through the years looks the same as last years.
Returns
Returns and Profit Percent chart were created using Google Sheets so it would look different from my other articles. Also, you would notice that the comparison with Nifty 50 Index is also missing; I am yet to figure that out. One thing to note here is that, last year has been good for both Samvardhana Motherson International and Motherson Sumi Wiring India.
Profit Percent
Looking at profit percent, it becomes even clearer how good last year has been. Till last year I was at loss of 2.5% while this time around I am at profit of 62%!
XIRR
I cannot create XIRR chart in Google Sheet. So you will have to read the words here.
My XIRR now is at 9.5%. If I compare it to XIRR of Nifty 50 Index it would have been 15%. Although I am still behind Nifty 50 Index returns, but I think there may be a point in time in the future where my investment will beat the Nifty 50 Index. This was unimaginable for me till last year.
As the last fiscal year (2023-24) unfolded, Supreme Industries witnessed remarkable growth in its share price. Getting included in MSCI index also helped the growth. As a result at one point, my XIRR soared to an impressive 45%!
There was a minor correction, causing the stock price to dip below ₹4000. Undeterred by the temporary setback, I seized the opportunity to accumulate more shares, capitalizing on the lower price. Fast forward to the present—57% of my investment poured in during the last fiscal year (2023-24) alone! Interestingly, this situation mirrors the previous year where—at that time—three quarters of my investment came in last two fiscal years.
Investment through the years
Returns
A dividend yield at cost of 1% is… good enough.
Fiscal year
Dividend yield at cost
2018-19
0.75%
2019-20
2.14%
2020-21
0.42%
2021-22
0.65%
2022-23
1.13%
2023-24
1.02% *
* Data as of 9-Apr-2024
The dividend yield at cost mentioned in the Returns graph above, is yield at the date at which I received the dividends. Another way to look at dividend yield is to calculate it for the fiscal year. To calculate the dividend yield at cost in the above table I use the below formula. (Total amount of dividends received in a fiscal year ÷ Total amount invested at the end of fiscal year) × 100
Profit
XIRR
A remarkable 35% XIRR, compared to the Nifty 50 index’s 15%, is truly impressive! Now, the question remains: How long will it maintain this remarkable performance?
I cannot get around that no matter what I do, beating the market consistently is very hard, and even if I manage it, it is more due to luck than skill. I am no longer excited whenever I see a new tweet, article, or video about a new product.
The idea of passive or index investing has killed my passion for investing.
After two years of underperforming the Nifty 50, the above statement rings true for me. And if it happens with a company as solid as TCS, then I think I am also better off with investing in Nifty 50 index.
Investment through the years
Four years is a less of a timeframe for equity investments and when 65% of those investments have come in last two years, I need to be patient. Maybe in next four years things will be different.
Returns
TCS has been good with dividends. 2%+ dividend yield at cost is something that would consider good.
The dividend yield at cost mentioned in the chart above, is yield at the date at which I received the dividends. Another way to look at dividend yield is to calculate it for the fiscal year.
Fiscal year
Dividend yield at cost
2019-20
0.61%
2020-21
0.93%
2021-22
1.07%
2022-23
2.91%
2023-24
2.11%
To calculate the dividend yield at cost in the above table I use the below formula.
(Total amount of dividends received in a fiscal year ÷ Total amount invested at the end of fiscal year) × 100
Profit
XIRR
14% XIRR should sound good, right? But when you see 20% XIRR on the Nifty 50 index it… pinches!
I am not quite sure why I am writing this post on my shareholding journey of Hatsun when I have more or less given up on the company. I am planning to exit Hatsun once I see a brief uptick where it at least goes over 10% XIRR. With underperformance spanning over five years, all that is stopping me from selling off is that my 90%+ investment in Hatsun has come in the last 3 years.
Let’s see if I am blogging about my journey next year.
When you’re poor, your desire for more money stems from a need to survive. When you’re wealthy, your desire for more money stems from a need for status, because you are surrounded by other status seekers.
…
In the absence of strong convictions about what you want from life, you will always default to wanting more money.
