In the seventh year of my investment journey with Marico, beating index continues to be an elusive dream. And with the recent run up in the Nifty Next 50 index since last one year, I think it might be even more elusive now.
While Marico’s XIRR at 17% looks good, the XIRR of 22.9% and 28% of Nifty 500 and Nifty Next 50 index respectively looks better. And with LTCG revised to 12.5%, any additional return will mean more post-tax return.
It has been nine years since I started investing in HDFC Bank, and I still can’t call myself a long-term investor. Why? Because in the fiscal year 2023-24, I invested more than I had in the previous eight fiscal years. Why such a significant increase? Well, my earnings were higher, and HDFC Bank was going through a slump. I decided to take a risk by investing during that slump.
Consider this: My investment during the first five fiscal years amounts to less than 10% of my entire investment in HDFC Bank. If—and that’s a big if—my earnings increase in the future, this percentage will decrease further.
After outperforming Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 during the initial years, my returns have taken a nosedive primarily due to the merger of HDFC and HDFC Bank. The merger seems to have added a lot of concerns for HDFC Bank. Concerns which I simply can’t wrap my head around because they are too technical for me.
My investment in Divi’s Laboratories has been my biggest missed opportunity. Six years back—still new to equity investing—I was looking for Pharma stocks to invest. During that research—not sure if I should call it research, but let’s go with it—I came across Divi’s Laboratories. I made a small investment in it and forgot about it. In the next 3.5 years the stock went up 5 times! And I did not make a single new investment during that time! Every time I thought “it can’t go up any further than that”. Boy was I wrong. So, so wrong!
Since FY 2020-21, I have slowly started increasing my investments in Divi’s Laboratories. But the stock—on the other hand—has been volatile. During April’23 the stock went on a downward spiral and my XIRR went to -20%. What happened at that time? Finshots has an explanation for that.
Over the last fiscal year Divi’s Laboratories has slowly recovered and is now beating Nifty 50 by a razor thin margin. Yay! Hopefully this recovery continues.
Over the last five years I have steadily increased by investment in Dabur. The stock—on the other hand—has gone sideways, zig-zagging between positive and negative sides of zero; never truly rising up and—thankfully—never crashing drastically.
There is really nothing to write about here apart from my anxiety about holding a stock for long term.
In 2024, my investment in Polycab took me on a roller coaster ride. Early in the year, allegations of ₹200 crore tax evasion were leveled against the company. As a result, the stock plummeted from ₹5,400 to ₹3,800. I felt like my golden goose was dying. My profit dropped from 500% to 325%, which, while still impressive, felt disappointing compared to the initial gains. Unsure whether the allegations were true, I grappled with the decision: should I sell Polycab and secure a gain of over 300%? Ultimately, I chose to do… nothing. I sat there, eyes closed, waiting. Remarkably, four months later, Polycab has fully recovered its lost gains. But the mystery remains: were the allegations true or false? And what happens if they are true?
| Fiscal year | Dividend yield at cost |
| 2019-20 | 1.86% |
| 2020-21 | 0.00% |
| 2021-22 | 1.45% |
| 2022-23 | 1.27% |
| 2023-24 | 2.13% |
| 2024-25 | 0.00% * |
The dividend yield at cost mentioned in the Returns graph above, is yield at the date at which I received the dividends. Another way to look at dividend yield is to calculate it for the fiscal year. To calculate the dividend yield at cost in the above table I use the below formula. (Total amount of dividends received in a fiscal year ÷ Total amount invested at the end of fiscal year) × 100
Seven years ago when I started investing in Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd, it was called Motherson Sumi Systems Limited. Over last seven years the company split its wiring business into another entity called Motherson Sumi Wiring India Limited and renamed itself to Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd.
When Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd got demerged, the historical share price of Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd got adjusted to remove Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd’s valuation (not sure if I am using the right terminology here, I am no financial expert). With that I was not able to reliably calculate the historical movement of my investment. But this time, I used the technique described here with the difference being that I used Google Sheets rather than Numbers on Mac.
Before we go see the journey, here is gist of the key events.
| Date | Event |
| Jul 2017 from Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd | Bonus 1:2 |
| Oct 2018 from Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd | Bonus 1:2 |
| Feb 2022 | Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd demerges with 1:1 ratio i.e. one equity share of Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd for every one equity share of Motherson Sumi Systems Limited |
| Sep 2022 from Motherson Sumi Wiring Ltd | Bonus 2:5 |
| Sep 2022 | Motherson Sumi Systems Limited renames itself to Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd |
| Oct 2022 from Samvardhana Motherson International Ltd | Bonus 1:2 |
I have not invested any amount since I last wrote, so the my investment through the years looks the same as last years.
Returns and Profit Percent chart were created using Google Sheets so it would look different from my other articles. Also, you would notice that the comparison with Nifty 50 Index is also missing; I am yet to figure that out. One thing to note here is that, last year has been good for both Samvardhana Motherson International and Motherson Sumi Wiring India.
Looking at profit percent, it becomes even clearer how good last year has been. Till last year I was at loss of 2.5% while this time around I am at profit of 62%!
I cannot create XIRR chart in Google Sheet. So you will have to read the words here.
My XIRR now is at 9.5%. If I compare it to XIRR of Nifty 50 Index it would have been 15%. Although I am still behind Nifty 50 Index returns, but I think there may be a point in time in the future where my investment will beat the Nifty 50 Index. This was unimaginable for me till last year.
As the last fiscal year (2023-24) unfolded, Supreme Industries witnessed remarkable growth in its share price. Getting included in MSCI index also helped the growth. As a result at one point, my XIRR soared to an impressive 45%!
There was a minor correction, causing the stock price to dip below ₹4000. Undeterred by the temporary setback, I seized the opportunity to accumulate more shares, capitalizing on the lower price. Fast forward to the present—57% of my investment poured in during the last fiscal year (2023-24) alone! Interestingly, this situation mirrors the previous year where—at that time—three quarters of my investment came in last two fiscal years.
A dividend yield at cost of 1% is… good enough.
| Fiscal year | Dividend yield at cost |
| 2018-19 | 0.75% |
| 2019-20 | 2.14% |
| 2020-21 | 0.42% |
| 2021-22 | 0.65% |
| 2022-23 | 1.13% |
| 2023-24 | 1.02% * |
The dividend yield at cost mentioned in the Returns graph above, is yield at the date at which I received the dividends. Another way to look at dividend yield is to calculate it for the fiscal year. To calculate the dividend yield at cost in the above table I use the below formula. (Total amount of dividends received in a fiscal year ÷ Total amount invested at the end of fiscal year) × 100
A remarkable 35% XIRR, compared to the Nifty 50 index’s 15%, is truly impressive! Now, the question remains: How long will it maintain this remarkable performance?
I cannot get around that no matter what I do, beating the market consistently is very hard, and even if I manage it, it is more due to luck than skill. I am no longer excited whenever I see a new tweet, article, or video about a new product.
The idea of passive or index investing has killed my passion for investing.
How index investing killed my “passion” for investing
After two years of underperforming the Nifty 50, the above statement rings true for me. And if it happens with a company as solid as TCS, then I think I am also better off with investing in Nifty 50 index.
Four years is a less of a timeframe for equity investments and when 65% of those investments have come in last two years, I need to be patient. Maybe in next four years things will be different.
TCS has been good with dividends. 2%+ dividend yield at cost is something that would consider good.
The dividend yield at cost mentioned in the chart above, is yield at the date at which I received the dividends. Another way to look at dividend yield is to calculate it for the fiscal year.
| Fiscal year | Dividend yield at cost |
| 2019-20 | 0.61% |
| 2020-21 | 0.93% |
| 2021-22 | 1.07% |
| 2022-23 | 2.91% |
| 2023-24 | 2.11% |
To calculate the dividend yield at cost in the above table I use the below formula.
(Total amount of dividends received in a fiscal year ÷ Total amount invested at the end of fiscal year) × 100
14% XIRR should sound good, right? But when you see 20% XIRR on the Nifty 50 index it… pinches!
Related reading:
I am not quite sure why I am writing this post on my shareholding journey of Hatsun when I have more or less given up on the company. I am planning to exit Hatsun once I see a brief uptick where it at least goes over 10% XIRR. With underperformance spanning over five years, all that is stopping me from selling off is that my 90%+ investment in Hatsun has come in the last 3 years.
Let’s see if I am blogging about my journey next year.
My thoughts from last year about my investment in Colgate.
Continuing my investment in Colgate—which has been underperforming since 2 years—has been a very painful experience. I still have my conviction on this stock after five years, albeit it is now on shaky ground.
My conviction has paid off this year. From the beginning of the year, Colgate has experienced a steady upward trend, with a remarkable increase of over 65%. Following three years of lagging behind the Nifty 50 Index, my investment in Colgate has now successfully bridged the gap. Given the current momentum, I am confident that it will outperform the Nifty 50 Index in the coming year. Additionally, the dividends have proven to be satisfactory.
The dividend yield at cost mentioned in the chart above, is yield at the date at which I received the dividends. Another way to look at dividend yield is to calculate it for the fiscal year.
| Fiscal year | Dividend yield at cost |
| 2017-18 | 0.87% |
| 2018-19 | 1.83% |
| 2019-20 | 0.59% |
| 2020-21 | 3.31% |
| 2021-22 | 1.40% |
| 2022-23 | 2.51% |
| 2023-24 | 3.07% * |
To calculate the dividend yield at cost in the above table I use the below formula.
(Total amount of dividends received in a fiscal year ÷ Total amount invested at the end of fiscal year) × 100
Related reading
Note: I missed including some of my Colgate-Palmolive (India) Limited share purchases in previous articles. These are rectified in this post, so there will be difference between my previous analysis and this one.
