naveegator.in

Category: Equity

  • What to do with your portfolio when stock market crashes?

    I don’t know. But the folks at Marcellus know. They call it ‘Post-facto rebalancing’.

    …we stay fully invested at all times and rebalance our portfolio in two ways to benefit from a stock market crash. Firstly, after a crash, we rebalance the portfolio to increase our allocation to companies that have undergone high drawdowns (we finance this investment by shaving off our allocations to companies that have NOT undergone high drawdowns). Secondly, after the share prices of our portfolio companies have recovered, we again consider rebalancing the portfolio to sell some allocation in companies that have seen a sharper recovery than the rest of the portfolio. Such rebalancing is also carried out if share price dislocations happen without a broader stock market crash.

    How Portfolio Rebalancing Tools Enhance Investors’ Returns

    They even have an real life example and discuss on the pros and cons later in the newsletter.

  • Four years as shareholder of ITC

    ITC—in my humble opinion—is probably the most polarized stock in India. On one hand, you have the die hard fans who are waiting for its resurrection some day to prove them right. On the other hand, there are the detractors who don’t miss a single opportunity to poke fun at it. And some of those jokes are actually good. Don’t believe me, just Google ‘ITC meme’ and get ready for laughs.

    When I invested in ITC I didn’t know it was butt of jokes—pun intended—on the internet. I put some money in it and forgot. Then I received my first dividend. And I started day dreaming about living off with ITC’s dividend in my retirement. But sanity prevailed and here I am still holding ITC, waiting for its resurrection but not hoping to live off its dividend.

    Return

    The returns are—well—nothing to talk about. Apart from few spikes here and there, the returns have largely been flat.

    Profit (rather the absence of it)

    In case of ITC my profits and losses have always made sure they are never too far from 0%. They will go till 10% or –10%, but never too far.

    XIRR

    With such dismal returns over past four years you may ask why am I still holding ITC? Well I ask the same question to 250+ mutual funds (as on Sep 2021) holding ITC.

    NOTE: XIRR for initial months varies wildly and is not useful for any analysis. But once the investments complete minimum of 1 year, XIRR gives me a much better picture. So I calculate ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ which calculates XIRR only for the investments which have completed minimum of one year while ‘XIRR’ continues to calculate for all the investments irrespective of how much time has been completed. There are some periods where ‘XIRR’ and ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ calculate to the same amount as for that time all my investments had completed minimum of 1 year.

  • Three years as shareholder of Havells

    Three years ago I started investing in Havells. During the first two years the gains were pretty average. But during last one year the stock has zoomed and so has my returns.

    Return

    I invested only four times in Havells and was planning to invest more, but at the current price I maybe overpaying.

    Profit

    At the current price levels, my amount invested in Havells has more than doubled. While the amount invested wasn’t significant but the profit percent surely is.

    XIRR

    The current XIRR of 45%—which is certainly impressive—is not sustainable in the long run. But with the good run that this stock is having I am hoping for fat returns of 20% over long term.

    NOTE: XIRR for initial months varies wildly and is not useful for any analysis. But once the investments complete minimum of 1 year, XIRR gives me a much better picture. So I calculate ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ which calculates XIRR only for the investments which have completed minimum of one year while ‘XIRR’ continues to calculate for all the investments irrespective of how much time has been completed. There are some periods where ‘XIRR’ and ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ calculate to the same amount as for that time all my investments had completed minimum of 1 year.

  • Five years as shareholder of Asian Paints

    Five years ago I started my investment journey in Asian Paints. And then I stopped after four months! For the next three years I did not invest in Asian Paints as I was trying to ‘diversify’. At least that’s what I think I was doing. Looking back at those three years and current share price of Asian Paints, it seems like a lost opportunity. And that too a big one. Along with HDFC Bank and Pidilite Industries, Asian Paints has high allocation in my portfolio and I invested heavily in it during COVID pandemic market crash.

    Return

    Profit

    XIRR

    Asian Paints has consistently maintained a positive XIRR, even during the COVID pandemic market crash. And because of market rally after that, my XIRR currently stands at more than 30%. Keeping my fingers crossed that this trend continues.

    NOTE: XIRR for initial months varies wildly and is not useful for any analysis. But once the investments complete minimum of 1 year, XIRR gives me a much better picture. So I calculate ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ which calculates XIRR only for the investments which have completed minimum of one year while ‘XIRR’ continues to calculate for all the investments irrespective of how much time has been completed. There are some periods where ‘XIRR’ and ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ calculate to the same amount as for that time all my investments had completed minimum of 1 year.

  • Four years as shareholder of VIP Industries

    Four years ago after my thorough research I decided to invest in VIP Industries (and I can’t remember what that research was). I invested twice in 2017 when the share price was just below ₹ 200. After that the share price climbed sharply resulting in more than 200% return in next one year. I patted myself on the back for my (non-existant) stock picking skills. Then came COVID. The COVID pandemic crash wiped off everything in one month. One month! I invested twice during the crash to accumulate more shares at lower prices. The returns have since recovered but it is nowhere near the 200% mark that I once saw.

    Return

    Profit

    The COVID pandemic crash was probably the most severe for VIP Industries in my portfolio. From 170% profit to 20% loss in one month. And it made sense considering the travel ban imposed because of COVID. It has recovered but I am yet to see the astronomical heights that I saw in Sep 2018.

    XIRR

    NOTE: XIRR for initial months varies wildly and is not useful for any analysis. But once the investments complete minimum of 1 year, XIRR gives me a much better picture. So I calculate ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ which calculates XIRR only for the investments which have completed minimum of one year while ‘XIRR’ continues to calculate for all the investments irrespective of how much time has been completed. There are some periods where ‘XIRR’ and ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ calculate to the same amount as for that time all my investments had completed minimum of 1 year.

  • Four years as shareholder of Pidilite Industries

    Four years ago after my thorough research I decided to invest in Pidilite Industries (the company made Fevicol and that was the only research I did).

    Return

    Pidilite Industries has been probably one of my most consistent performers. Even during the COVID pandemic crash, the worth of my investment never went below my amount invested.

    Profit

    Except during the early months of my investment I am yet to see a loss with my investment in Pidilite Industries.

    XIRR

    My ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ has been so good with Pidilite Industries, that even at the worst point it was giving better returns than fixed deposits.

    NOTE: XIRR for initial months varies wildly and is not useful for any analysis. But once the investments complete minimum of 1 year, XIRR gives me a much better picture. So I calculate ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ which calculates XIRR only for the investments which have completed minimum of one year while ‘XIRR’ continues to calculate for all the investments irrespective of how much time has been completed. There are some periods where ‘XIRR’ and ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ calculate to the same amount as for that time all my investments had completed minimum of 1 year.

  • Six years as shareholder of HDFC Bank

    Six years ago after my thorough research I decided to invest in HDFC Bank (my ICICI Bank relationship manager advised me to invest in HDFC Bank and not in ICICI Bank, and I am glad he did).

    Incidentally, HDFC Bank was the start of my investing journey. It was the first share that I bought. Being a rookie back then, at one point I bought just one share to round off the number of shares with me. After the contract statement came I realised that I had paid a hefty brokerage charge on that.

    Return

    Between Feb 2018 and Feb 2020 I did not invest in HDFC Bank. Why? Because I was busy investing (ahem, diversifying) in Greenply, IDFC First Bank and Supreme Industries. That was a lost opportunity in hindsight.

    Profit/Loss

    XIRR

    HDFC Bank is one of the stars of my portfolio, consistently maintaining XIRR of more than 20% except during the COVID pandemic crash where my five years worth of gain were wiped off in matter of weeks. It has since recovered though.

    I invested steadily in HDFC Bank during the COVID pandemic market crash as I wasn’t sure if other companies will survive the post COVID pandemic era. And I am hoping HDFC Bank will.

    NOTE: XIRR for initial months varies wildly and is not useful for any analysis. But once the investments complete minimum of 1 year, XIRR gives me a much better picture. So I calculate ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ which calculates XIRR only for the investments which have completed minimum of one year while ‘XIRR’ continues to calculate for all the investments irrespective of how much time has been completed. There are some periods where ‘XIRR’ and ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ calculate to the same amount as for that time all my investments had completed minimum of 1 year.

  • Four years as shareholder of Marico

    Four years ago after my thorough research I decided to invest in Marico (I realised embarrassingly late that Marico manufactures Parachute which I have been using for decades). This is how it has performed for me.

    Return

    The first year of my investment’s worth was flat with no gains; the second time I bought Marico after one year, it was at the same levels as the first time. But the next three years the share price has been steadily improving (except the COVID pandemic crash).

    Profit

    XIRR

    Post COVID pandemic crash, the share price has recovered and is at 15% XIRR. I am hoping it continues with that rate for coming years and provide me with inflation beating returns.

    NOTE: XIRR for initial months varies wildly and is not useful for any analysis. But once the investments complete minimum of 1 year, XIRR gives me a much better picture. So I calculate ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ which calculates XIRR only for the investments which have completed minimum of one year while ‘XIRR’ continues to calculate for all the investments irrespective of how much time has been completed. There are some periods where ‘XIRR’ and ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ calculate to the same amount as for that time all my investments had completed minimum of 1 year.

  • Three years as shareholder of Nerolac

    Three years ago after my thorough research I decided to invest in Nerolac. My research was so thorough that it was only on trying to buy the share I realised it is not Nerolac, its Kansai Nerolac. I have invested only thrice over these three years. Below is how the returns have been for me.

    Return

    Profit

    XIRR

    NOTE: XIRR for initial months varies wildly and is not useful for any analysis. But once the investments complete minimum of 1 year, XIRR gives me a much better picture. So I calculate ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ which calculates XIRR only for the investments which have completed minimum of one year while ‘XIRR’ continues to calculate for all the investments irrespective of how much time has been completed. There are some periods where ‘XIRR’ and ‘XIRR (>1 year)’ calculate to the same amount as for that time all my investments had completed minimum of 1 year.

  • When to sell stocks?

    Probably the most practical set of examples on when to sell stocks from your portfolio by R Venkataraman writing for Economic Times.

    I have many stocks, which I am holding for years. I don’t look to optimise every stock, and I don’t think it is worth the time and effort. I am not a professional fund manager, and retail investors should ideally not waste time trying to optimise a portfolio. There will be duds and some stars and vice versa. The key is to emerge fine on an overall portfolio basis.

    I have sold shares when I need money to do something in the real world, which in my case, was real estate. If you don’t need to break the portfolio, please don’t.

    I have sold shares when I needed to sell X to buy Y. At that time, I evaluated all stocks, and picked the ones to sell, which in my opinion, would not do as well as the new entrant. I am not an active churner; this exercise happens rarely.

    I have sold shares when stocks were giving returns beyond my imagination, which happened this year. This is a new feeling for me because most stocks in my portfolio usually move slowly. This year, some of my stocks have risen vertically. So I have booked profits. I use a mental model, which is not very scientific. So don’t waste time trying to poke holes in it.

    Develop your own rule of thumb that makes you happy. I tell myself, sell 50% of the stocks, so that remaining stocks are free. This I learnt from my friend HM, who used an acronym SHAD – sell half at double – and let the rest run.

    Selling stocks? To do it or not to do is indeed a big question