Andrej Karpathy talking about the widening gap between groups of people and how they see AI capabilities.
Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It’s now less “two groups of people speaking past each other” and more a sharp funnel.
– Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all.
– Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products. This group sees derpy chatbots and treats them a bit like a better Google search, a writing aid, or etc. Maybe an agent tries to book you a flight. I have non-tech friends who (reasonably, imo) say they have not much use for it at all. Even many professionals outside of math&code are in this tier. For example, execs and many other functions spend a lot of their time talking to other people, so while they understand what is happening intellectually, it is still second-hand and a bit abstract.
– Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt. Building apps, copying apps, translating apps, decompiling apps from binaries… This has all happened very quickly and recently – less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand, typing memorized computer code commands into a code editor character by character, occasionally pressing Tab to autocomplete a little chunk of code.
– And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally. The external world has seen the preview. It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics. Things that would have taken top professionals in the industry years of work. Meanwhile, human review and comprehension are starting to fall behind. For example, people are still involved in the “archeology” of the OpenAI-HF incident from many months ago. Mathematicians may be poring over the 722 manuscripts on frontier mathematics for a while.
TL;DR by Adam:
You’re drilling with a hand drill. Some people got cordless drills. About 5,000 people got entire factories.
We’re still arguing if cordless drills are useful, and those 5,000 are already building teleporters. That’s how far ahead they can get.
Ha!

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